Hideo Nomo Has a Posse

Odd little moments in baseball.

TIGERS 7TH: Maddox grounded out (shortstop to first); Gutierrez
grounded out (shortstop to first); Wilson struck out on an error
by Ratliff [Wilson out at third (left to shortstop to left)]; 0
R, 0 H, 1 E, 0 LOB.  Tigers 1, Twins 2.

From Tigers vs Twins, April 25, 1970. ¶

The National League rookie of the year race is the most stacked I can recall. Like, ever. Look at some of these young men:

Buster Posey: .331/.383/.502, 8 HR, 79 H, 265 PA

Jason Heyward: .262/.377/.451, 12 HR, 90 H, 413 PA

Gaby Sanchez: .290/.354/.455, 12 HR, 118 H, 457 PA

Mike Stanton: .260/.338/.531, 12 HR, 50 H, 220 PA

Tyler Colvin: .254/.313/.518, 18 HR, 71 H, 308 PA

Starlin Castro: .319/.365/.447, 3 HR, 343 PA

Jamie Garcia: 7.05 K/9, 2.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and a 10-5 record.

John Axford: 10.7 K/9, 3.03 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 17 saves in 19 opportunities.

He’s just outside of this class at the moment, but in other years would be in the running: Ike Davis is posting a .251/.327/.433 line with 15 long balls in 407 PAs.

No other pitchers really factor in here: Strasburg’s thrown too few innings to be relevant (though his 10.6 K/9, 5.0 K/BB, and 0.80 WHIP make you catch your breath), and Mike Leake has come back to earth. I don’t think Garcia’s numbers are impressive enough to run with those position players. Posey looks like he’s somewhere between Jesus H. Christ and Joe Mauer, the sequel. He’ll put in enough plate appearances to be in the running, and you have to feel like he’s the best bet.

The AL doesn’t even come close to this young crop of talent. Austin Jackson is putting up a very solid campaign with a .305/.354/.406 line but only one long ball and 34 extra base hits. Brennan Boesch was out early and strong and has a .281/.344/.480 line on the year with 14 home runs, but in his last 36 games is only .203/.295/.289.

For the record: Mr. Mat Latos pitched for two outs too many in 2009 to be considered here, but, for the fun of it: 8.7 K/9, 1.0 WHIP, and a tidy little 12-5 record. ¶

He lost tonight to the Dodgers, but no matter: serious people have long abandoned the win as a meaningful measure of pitching success. Mat Latos is a serious candidate in the National League Cy Young race. Were he playing in certain, shall we say, more prominent media markets, his name would be on the tips of tongues but since he’s out here, on the west coast, in a quieter baseball city, he’s emerging as a star in the quietest possible way.

Let’s look at some numbers, shall we? His adjusted ERA is 148 (48 points above league average) for seventh in the NL, sandwiched between Ubaldo Jimenez and Yovani Gallardo. He is striking out 8.6 batters per nine innings for 10th, and his strikeout to walk ratio is 3.42: seventh.

Two interesting numbers showing the amount of epic fail he’s throwing at batters: his WHIP sits at 0.99, the only pitcher in the NL to post a sub-1.00 number; his batting average against is second at .202. He’ll bring 98mph heat or drop a curve over the edge of the plate: the end result is going to be the same.

Latos is still incredibly young at 22. It’s certain that he’s having quite a bit of a luck in the 2010 campaign with a strand rate of 84.2% and a BABIP of .248, but who among us (and among Cy Young winners) has not benefited from the good graces of Lady Luck? His command of the strike zone is increasing before your eyes: 24.3% of all plate appearances against him end in a strikeout, good for sixth in the NL.

If you want to throw out some really quote-unquote advanced numbers, Latos’s fastball is worth 16.2 runs above average according to Fangraphs’s magical calculations (linear weights + special sauce) and his slider, 10.2. Only one other guy in the senior circuit has a more effective two-pitch combination: Josh Johnson (30.6 to Mat’s 26.4).

Let us now pause to appreciate the development that’s happening here.

Will he win the Cy Young? I don’t know. It’s improbable given the innings limitations he’ll likely face as the season wears on. Kid’s only 22. Ease up on a fella. Is it wildly premature to discuss such an award? Yeah, certainly. It’s downright irresponsible. Would he win if the season ended today? No, probably not. HOWEVER, is Mr. Latos in the race? Quite possibly. What’s clear to me is that he certainly deserves a lot more attention than he is getting.

Here’s to you, #38. ¶

New rule! No longer shall the batter be credited with a sacrifice when the lead runner is already in motion, ‘cos it’s clear what’s happened is a failed hit and run, and there’s no room for failure in baseball. ¶

Keith Olbermann on memories of George Steinbrenner. Given how apoplectic and histrionic he can be on television (because that’s what sells), it’s wonderful to read something so sublime and well-written. He’s usually spot-on in his baseball blog, and this is no exception. Thanks for the memories and the words, Keith.

And so long, Boss. ¶